Maps can present a lot of information in a very efficient way. Think of geography in the broad sense, including economics, geology, political boundaries and other kinds of information in addition to “simple” spatial relationships. The article linked below uses a series of maps to bring the time dimension (i.e., history) into the presentation. For those who need a refresher on the history of the USSR, or for those who might be too young to even remember the USSR, this article provides a useful thumbnail sketch. As they say, the past is prologue, and this is important context for the current developments in eastern Europe.
Month: February 2022
Which Way to Turn
We were just returning from a short family hike, and paused to catch our breath near the parking lot. Suddenly, an off-leash dog came towards us, his owner in hot pursuit. The dog was almost as tall as my four-year-old daughter, and we had no way to know if he was friendly or a hazard.
My daughter had several options: try to run away from the dog, who was undoubtedly faster; prepare to defend herself, even though that would be hopeless; or seek help. As the dog trotted up and tried to jump on her, my daughter instinctively turned and grabbed my leg, looking for protection and security.
We live in a chaotic world. Many kinds of threats, seen or unseen, may rise up at any time. Psalm 2:1-2 says, “Why do the nations rage and the peoples plot in vain? The kings of the earth set themselves, and the rulers take counsel together, against the LORD and against his Anointed.” Psalm 46:6 adds, “The nations rage, the kingdoms totter; he utters his voice, the earth melts.” We see this kind of turbulence on international (think of eastern Europe), regional (think of lawless urban areas), and sometimes even local scales (think of hostility within neighborhoods).
When we see evil from afar, or when turbulence seems to take a personal interest in us, what do we do? We can try to run, but that would provide only a temporary solution at best. Sometimes we should try to fight, but the troubles may be bigger than any response we can muster. We can surrender, but surrender rarely stops evil.
Read all of Psalm 46 to provide the full context of the single verse quoted above. Go ahead and look it up; I can wait. The point is this: when trouble comes, we need to instinctively turn to God, our Heavenly Father, just as my daughter instinctively turned to me, her earthly father, so many years ago. Or we can turn elsewhere, which is futile. By God’s grace, let’s turn to Him.
Who Burns Coal?
China and India account for 50% of the world’s coal production (and use), but this is a dirty way to generate electricity. Maybe the dirtiest, although wind and solar are not very clean if you take the entire life cycle into account.
The article linked above indicates that the US has been making a lot of progress in reducing our production and use of coal. However, while China talks a good game about reducing carbon emissions, then have over 40 coal-fired power plants under construction. Not to worry; a coal fired power plant usually has a design life of only 40 years or so. Like any smoker might say, they can quit anytime they want to!
World Religions from 30,000 Feet
The article linked below provides a treat for the data junkies and map nerds among us. If you can’t resist digging in, don’t stop at the global map headlining the article; take time to peruse the individual maps provided for each major religion. But, as usual, let us note a few caveats and questions that might help frame (or spark) some of our thinking.
First, even though I love this kind of graphic presentation, I remain skeptical about the underlying data. The maps portray percentages of the population that identify with a major religion, and the data probably come from a number of surveys and statistical extrapolations. But if you ask someone about their religion, to what extent might their answer be affected by who does the asking and by whether the process protects their identity? Islam shows up as the majority religion in Iran (no surprise), but recent anonymous surveys found only 37% of Iranians identifying as Muslim. Maybe the results depend on the questions and the survey process more than we realize.
Second, remember that the maps show which major religion is most prevalent in a country, but do not show whether that religion is a 95% majority or only a 51% majority. Nor do the tallies reveal the second-most prevalent religion in each country, although in some cases we might be able to make an educated guess. The picture gets even muddier when we realize that the survey lumps a lot of odds and ends into the “unaffiliated” and “folk” religion categories. Read the article and you will see what I mean.
Third, we always need to be cautious about how words and names are defined, used, or misused when it comes to this kind of data collection process. Just because someone claims to identify with a major religion does not make it so. Years ago one of my friends claimed to be a Christian, but denied the miracles of Jesus reported in the New Testament, and was dubious about the resurrection of Jesus Christ. This survey would surely count him among the Christians, but I expect he will have some interesting conversations with Jesus when they meet face to face.
Having said all of this, it is still interesting to note that all parts of the world seem to have a predominant major religion of one form or another. Deniers notwithstanding, humans are religious beings. Even atheists practice a form of religion in asserting their atheism. Ecclesiastes 3:11 says, “he (God) has put eternity into man’s heart, yet so that he cannot find out what God has done from the beginning to the end.” I take this to suggest that every person yearns for God, even if we do not always realize what that hunger is all about.
Tell Me about Inflation
We remember periods of inflation, stagflation, and recession that affected our family budget when we first married and at various times since then. Interestingly, some of our younger friends and family never experienced mortgage rates in the double digits, food coming in black-and-yellow “generic” boxes, or inflation pushing grocery prices up faster than wages could keep pace. And the idea of inflation playing the role of a tax increase, as politicians use cheaper dollars to pay for their spending plans, might be a new concept to our younger voters. With all of this in mind, the article linked below provides a partial introduction to inflation in the US economy and to some of the factors that might influence or drive inflation.
As you can see from the chart, as bad as inflation seems to be shaping up for the near future, we have definitely seen worse. Those willing to learn from history can gain insight from things that triggered inflation (e.g., energy shortfalls) and from failed attempts (e.g., price controls) to bring inflation under control.
Inflation seems simple: we pay more for gasoline, groceries, or a Big Mac, and a week or a month later we find ourselves paying even more. But inflation is more complicated than it first appears, and it does not help that the various talking heads in industry, corporate media, or government rarely discuss the full picture. For example, what is the role of monetary policy or government spending in inflation? Seems like some people don’t want to discuss that possibility. Sometimes the talking heads appear to be in denial, but if you lived in a gated community with a room full of gourmet foods and other people doing your driving, shopping, and bill-paying, then maybe denial is not really surprising. Regardless, the article linked above does provide a good introduction to the topic, although you should probably take their projections with a grain of salt. While you can still afford salt.
Natural Disasters
The analysis linked below portray the death toll of different kinds of natural disasters, worldwide, since 1900.
The comparison is interesting and potentially a bit distressing, particularly if you live in an area prone to one or more of these categories of natural disturbances.. It also leave some questions about definitions and data. For example, what is the difference between landslides and “mass movement (dry)?” Why do natural disasters not include events such as the Spanish flu? What kind of storms do the data include? They might include tornados, hurricanes, and perhaps even strong horizontal winds, but it would be nice to include an explanation in a footnote.
Just as distressing and perhaps more depressing are death counts caused by other kinds of disasters. World War I caused about 10 million military deaths and World War II caused another 21-25 million, and those numbers would probably more than double if we included civilian deaths. The Holocaust caused about 6 million deaths, and Marxist governments in the USSR and China starved about 10 million and 45 million people, respectively. Of course, these are all round numbers, and whether they are too high or too low seems to depend on the political views of who does the tally.
Stalin supposedly once said, “If only one man dies of hunger, that is a tragedy. If millions die, that’s only statistics.” In the face of disasters and such cynicism, we turn to the advice of Psalm 146:5, which declares, “Blessed is he whose help is the God of Jacob, whose hope is in the LORD his God.” We dare not ignore the past, but we certainly need the hope God provides as we walk into the future.
Signs of Spring
We have a Katy apricot tree that blooms and bears fruit a few weeks before “standard” apricots such as the Blenheim, Tilton, or Moorpark varieties. Today is February 5, but here are photos from a week ago and from this afternoon. Our two Blenheim apricot trees will bloom about a month after this early variety.
Honeybees and wild bees are on the job pollinating the flowers, but honeybees only work when the weather is warm enough, and they stay home if it rains. This tree will bloom for maybe as much as three weeks, which seems to be God’s way of improving the chances of pollination in case we have a few days that are cold, windy, or rainy.
Those who fail to learn from history…
Sir Winston Churchill famously said, “Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.” We can debate whether Churchill’s statement is always true, but we can also propose our own version: “Those who ignore history may repeat old mistakes or create new ones.” They may miss opportunities, too. Let’s look at some examples:
A few weeks ago a friend happened to remark, “The Democratic Party has dominated California politics, and particularly the state legislature, for 40 years. We have an entire generation of voters who have never lived under anything but liberal policies.” She was not debating the merits of liberal vs conservative policies; only pointing out that many people seem unaware of any alternatives. 40 years or more of Democratic Party dominance in the California state legislature means that most of today’s generation may not realize there are alternatives to the current policies that steer state government. The state legislature and news media that support them may discuss choices between liberal, more liberal, and really far out liberal policies, but nobody will ask for (or discuss) taking another direction if they have never heard anything but a caricature of it. We double down on the same policy mistakes, and we miss the opportunity to try a different approach.
How about a second example? Congress has been handing off its responsibilities to bureaucracies in the executive branch for decades. Typically, Congress passes a law that sets priorities or goals, but leaves it to the executive branch to implement the law, including defining what it means, fleshing out the details, and figuring out how to make it work. Over time, Congress has forgotten how to do its job, and the voters have forgotten to expect it of them. Don’t believe me? How many times in the past 30 years has Congress followed its own rules and passed the annual appropriations bills that make up the federal budget? You can count them on one hand. In the other years, Congress busied themselves with other things, and kicked the can down the road with omnibus bills, continuing resolutions, or both.
Let’s look at a more pragmatic example. What could be more pragmatic than construction? Legend has it that many decades ago, the state of California knew how to prepare a scope of work, conceptual designs, and a budget and schedule for major infrastructure projects like highways, aqueducts, and the like. Then they would ask the voters to approve a bond issue to finance the project and, with money in hand, actually build it. Legend has it that these projects reached completion without breaking the budget by two-fold, five-fold, or even ten-fold. People seem to have forgotten such old history, so in recent years we (the voters) approved bond issues for major projects (e.g., high-speed rail or projects to make California drought-resistant) and learned to view fuzzy planning, schedule delays of years or even decades, and busted budgets as normal. Why expect anything else if you don’t know anything else is possible?
But wait. What did you say about missed opportunities? These would be opportunities to improve on the past, or at least follow rather than ignoring its formulas for success. How do we get there from here? Let’s pose that as a thought question, and challenge ourselves to wrestle with it. For starters, the answers probably involve exercising our critical thinking, asking hard questions, learning from as much history as we can grasp (and not just from a political slice of history), and thinking outside of today’s boxes. Of course, this involves listening to and evaluating different perspectives rather than simply accepting what we hear from the political or corporate media types. A tall order, but you can do it! And think of the impact if enough of us start moving in this direction.