Lassen Volcanic National Park has always been one of our favorite places to camp. Located far enough from California’s metropolitan areas to filter out most day-trip visitors, the park is one of Northern California’s best kept secrets. It does fill up, but it is not unusual to be able to drive the five-six hours from Livermore to Summit Lake and still be able to find empty campsites.

Many people prefer to stay at Manzanita Lake, which has a large campground, a few cabins, and a store and showers. However, our first choice was always Summit Lake, nestled in alpine scenery at an elevation of over 7000 feet, quite a bit higher than Manzanita Lake. Campsites are primitive by some standards, but you can’t beat the crisp air and clear night skies for skywatching. And during the day, you can try hiking to the top of the mountain, which is over 3000 feet above Summit Lake campground.

So what about the volcano? As it turns out, Lassen Peak is the southernmost active volcanic mountain in the Cascade Range. Lassen erupted most recently in about 1915, just over a century ago. This is a blink of the eye in terms of geologic time, so the volcano is considered to be still active, and certainly not sleeping or dormant. You can see evidence of volcanic heat in the geothermal features (mud pots and steam vents) on the southeast side of the mountain.

So why did I speak of camping in past tense? My first attempt at car camping involved sleeping on an old army cot. After realizing that the air circulating under the cot all but guaranteed a cold night, I switched to a dense foam pad to insulate my sleeping bag from the ground. It helped with thermal effects, but not so much with any tree roots. Our first camping trips as a couple relied on sleeping bags on a foam pad underlay, but then we switched to air mattresses. This was an improvement until the air mattress went flat, putting us back on the cold, uneven ground. Someday we may try sleeping in the back of our van. Meanwhile, I expect that some of you can identify with our experiences.

We had a heat wave earlier this month, with temperatures over 100F four or five days in a row. One day the afternoon temperature went to 116F, setting a new record for Livermore, California. Meanwhile, we received repeated warnings of possible rolling blackouts if electricity demand exceeded available generating capacity. And we heard dire warnings that this “unusual” heat was a harbinger of climate change and worse to come.

The heat wave is long gone, but it left behind a few observations;

First, let me note that a Livermore heat wave in September is not remarkable except in the hype from those raising an alarm about climate change. A friend who moved to Livermore in the early 1960s remembered three straight weeks of temperatures over 100F in October. Some of those days were well over 110F. By comparison, four or five days over 100F is a walk in the park. But what about the 116F record? We know from personal experience that temperatures in Livermore can vary by up to five degrees from one side of town to the other. This is what we call microclimates, and local temperature variations like this can happen in any season of the year. So we very well may have had a 116F reading before, but did not happen to have instruments in the right place to measure it.

Next, despite text messages, emails, and broadcast news warnings of possible rolling blackouts, we did not experience any blackouts at our home. Air conditioning, lighting, electric stove, and electronics all continued to work as needed, for which we are grateful. However we did have 27 measurable brownouts during those few hot days. Not good, and particularly not good for electronics and appliances. The government has invested billions of tax dollars and billions of ratepayer dollars in subsidies for green energy over the past 20 years or more, but the net effect has been to reduce power grid and energy supply reliability rather than improve it. So the electricity shortages and brownouts come as no surprise.

Last but not least is a bit of relevant state history. A couple of decades ago the state of California took over operation of the electric power grid, wresting control away from the utility companies that had run it. The state promised better management to serve the public interest, meaning better prices, greener energy, and not as many blackouts and brownouts. However, all the hype turned out to be false: California electricity prices continued rising to become some of the highest in the nation, the state buys coal-fired and oil-fired electricity from other states when green energy can’t provide enough electricity, and in hot weather we have more blackouts and brownouts than ever before. The state does not like to talk about their failures, but you can read about them in reliable news media such as the Wall Street Journal. Or experience them first hand and pay for them if you live in California.

As I write this post, state administrative and regulatory agencies have proposed to ban the sale of gasoline-powered vehicles, small gasoline engines (e.g., for lawn mowers), gas furnaces, gas-fired water heaters, gas stoves, and diesel-powered trucks. Electricity is supposed to take the place of gasoline, diesel fuel, and natural gas in all of these devices. However, the state has not demonstrated the willingness or ability to provide reliable electricity supplies for current needs, much less for all of these future needs. It will be interesting to see if anyone will step up with policy proposals for a more realistic approach, or if the voters would be willing to consider candidates who would take a more constructive direction.

By now my loyal readers all know that I love maps. Maps can pack a lot of information into a pleasing (or at least interesting) visual image. The map below, for example, uses color shading to show per capita energy use in various countries around the world.

Mapped: Energy Consumption Per Capita Around the World

As efficient as they can be for conveying information, maps still might not tell the whole story. Since most if not all countries import or export energy, I wonder what the map above might look like if it showed energy imports or exports per capita? And what forms might those imports or exports take?

Energy imports and exports can show up in unexpected ways. For example, Iceland has a lot of cheap geothermal energy, helping to make the price of electricity in Iceland low compared to other countries. It takes a lot of electricity to refine aluminum ore into aluminum metal, so Iceland’s industries include significant aluminum refining operations. But if you think about it, by exporting ingots of refined aluminum Iceland is also in effect exporting the energy that went into refining the aluminum. Is that a very large fraction of Iceland’s per capita energy usage? We would have to crunch the numbers to find out, but the amount is probably not trivial.

So what’s the point? Well, two points come to mind. First, breezy presentations of things like energy, economics, environmental effects, and a host of other data may not be as simple as they first appear. A complete analysis of energy use or life cycle costs of something may turn out to be more complicated than we might expect. And it is hard to know where to stop as we add things to the analysis. Second, God gave you a good mind, a healthy sense of curiosity, and time to observe and think, so please do not ever hesitate to ask questions about assumptions, analyses, or outcomes that you see in the news or hear from the experts. The experts did not get to where they are without asking questions, and you should ask questions, too!

I learned a few things about money management during my paid working career (as compared to retirement, where I work for free 😉). Some of it was eye-opening. For example, one day I overheard a program leader comment that his program had taken a 5% budget cut. Five percent? We built that budget with sharp pencils and calculations down to the penny, so what did he mean, a 5% cut? We worked by the federal fiscal year, October 1 through September 30. He planned for a 10% increase going into the new year, received only a 5% increase from the funding agency, and he saw that as a 5% cut. Even with a 5% increase he did not get all that he wanted, so he was down in the mouth about a “cut.”

Later I noticed our funding agencies playing the same game with Congress. A federal program, or maybe an entire agency, would ask for a 15% budget increase. Congress deliberated, held hearings, kicked the can down the road once or twice, and then finally worked out some budget numbers in conference committee over cold pizza and cold coffee in the middle of the night. No smoking allowed, or it would have been the proverbial smoke filled room. The agency received, say, a 9% increase but then complained about the 6% “cut” like it was a punch to the gut. The extra 6% never actually existed, except in their hopes and dreams, but that did not stop the story of a “cut.”

And now we see the US government playing a similar game on the taxpayers. Which taxpayers? You, me, our kids, and our grandkids. So how does the game work? Well, the executive branch decided to forgive (bail out) student loans to the tune of $300B, $500B, or maybe more. Nobody seems to know how much this will eventually cost (the feds don’t seem to figure anything all that closely), but it is in the hundreds of billions of dollars. So how will they pay for this wealth transfer? Where will they find the money to forgive the debts? Glad to hear that you have the same question, and this week a government spokesman gave us the answer: with taxes going up and federal spending not ramping up as fast as they would like, they think that the growth in the federal debt this year will be a trillion and a half or so less than expected, so that gives them plenty of room to forgive a few hundred billions in student loans. And maybe spend some more money when they think of how to spend it. So they will write off the loan dollars against red ink dollars that have a kind of questionable existence. Kind of reminds me of the hypothetical 5% that my deserving program leader wanted. Am I missing something here, or is this just hocus-pocus on a trillion dollar scale?

By the way, the Bible is shot full of places where God calls for justice in our lives, communities, and commerce. Honest scales and honest money come to mind, although God’s justice is about much more than scales or money. It might be a good idea to pray for justice in our government.