Energy production, use, and economics often interact to complicate geopolitics. The chart below, showing the extent to which various European countries depend on energy imports, provides a great current illustration. We say current, but this chart is already going out of date as Europe prepares to import more liquified natural gas from the US. Of course, some of these countries could produce more of their own energy resources or use (rather than shutting down) their nuclear generating stations, but that’s another story.
Month: March 2022
Energy at Home
This interesting “energy ladder” chart shows how the type of energy used for domestic cooking or heating relates to income level or, perhaps, standard of living. Lower income levels correlate with using dirtier, cheaper fuels, with consequent health and mortality impacts. The obvious improvement is to switch to cleaner fuels, but that kind of transition requires capital investments, time, and (probably) higher fuel costs.
As interesting as the chart might be, we need to clarify some points. First, the chart lists several categories of fuels, but electricity is not itself a fuel or energy source. A note on the chart mentions that “clean” electricity comes from nuclear or renewable sources, and the latter would include hydroelectric, solar, or wind power. However, many countries still generate significant portions of their electricity from coal, and some countries (i.e., China and India) are still building more coal-fired power plants.
Second, the chart is only qualitative. The relationships it shows are real, but it leaves out factors such as fuel cost and availability, the sizes and locations of populations using each level of fuel on the ladder, and the time it takes to make a transition to a cleaner energy source. None of this comes as a surprise, because the picture is always more complicated than at first glance.
Nuclear Stockpiles
Nuclear weapon designs and quantities, as well as their status, locations, and delivery systems, are all closely guarded national secrets. However, the article linked above provides interesting estimates (emphasis on the word “estimate”) of the numbers of nuclear weapons held by various nations since the dawn of the nuclear age. The text of the article also sketches out some key events, both technical and geopolitical, since the US developed the world’s first nuclear weapons.
Given recent nuclear saber rattling by Russia and China, it is worth considering the circumstances under which any given country might actually use either a tactical or strategic nuclear weapon. These policies, or at least many of their details, are also held closely, partly to keep potential adversaries guessing and partly to help manage or avoid hard questions.
Nuclear weapons and their delivery systems are quite expensive. Will the list of nuclear-armed countries grow or shrink in years to come? Time will tell…
Pandemics Down Through History
A Promise from God
How well do you know God’s covenant with Noah? At the end of Genesis 9, God makes this reassuring promise to Noah, Noah’s family, and the rest of us:
“While the earth remains,
Seedtime and harvest,
And cold and heat,
And summer and winter,
And day and night
Shall not cease.”
We have a large, old Washington Navel orange tree that reminds me of God’s promise every year. It blooms for about three weeks each spring, filling the air with a heavy, sweet perfume and attracting honeybees and wild bees from who knows how far away. Here is a short video, up close. The whole tree is buzzing with bees; turn up the audio so that you can hear the sound.
We really don’t know the age of this tree; it was here when we bought this house many years ago. And we have learned a few things watching it bloom and bear fruit year after year. First, it seems to alternate the size of its crop from one year to the next. One year it will bear lots of medium-sized oranges and the following year it will be larger oranges but not as many. We don’t know why it does this, but the pattern of alternating years is usually reliable.
Next, we say usually reliable because unusual circumstances will disrupt the pattern. One winter we had freezing temperatures in the low 20s (or lower) for three nights in a row. The tree and its fruit have a large enough thermal mass (ask an engineer or scientist) that it shrugs off frost, and survives temperatures down into the upper 20s, but that freeze was much worse. A lot of California’s commercial orange crop froze that year, and we lost all of the fruit and most of the leaves from the tree. However, when spring came the tree leafed out, bloomed, and bore a new crop of oranges. Citrus trees can be amazingly resiliant.
We also learned not to judge the oranges by their color. A ripe, sweet orange might not be fully orange-colored, and an orange that is completely orange in color might not be very sweet. The key is in its tenderness. A tart or unripe orange will be hard to the touch, but as the orange ripens the skin starts to separate slightly from the flesh, such that the fruit starts to feel a little spongy to the touch. Sweetness and a little tenderness go together when it comes to oranges, lemons, and tangerines. Maybe that’s true for people, too.
Last but not least, this tree is tough and hard to kill. A year or two ago some pocket gophers started eating the root systems for this orange tree and for our Oro Blanco grapefruit tree. By the time we realized what was happening, they killed the grapefruit tree. This orange tree, though, had a very limited bloom last year, but survived the attack. And this year it is back to full vigor.
Toughness, sweetness, tenderness, and vigor — all gifts from God. And we thankfully enjoy the fruit.
Manpower in the Military
Remember the game of Risk? Best suited for a long winter afternoon, or even a whole weekend, this classic game of world conquest involved armies, strategy, and a bit of luck as each player went on the offense or tried to defend their home territories.. The map of military personnel shown above reminds me of armies positioned on the Risk game board, at least a little bit.
Not all military forces are the same. Obvious differences involve size, organization and location, as the article linked above shows. However, differences in training, motivation, and leadership are at least as important as sheer numbers, if not more so. We see this in current differences between Ukrainian and Russian forces, and we see it elsewhere if we take time to look.
Is a nation’s military forces made up of mostly conscripts, or is it more of a professional force made up of people who choose to enlist? How good is the training? Do the individuals know why they are fighting, and do they believe in it? How much cohesion is there within the units? Is the whole greater than the sum of the parts? How good is the leadership, and do they actually lead or only administer? What are the equipment and underlying supply chains like? Do they have a smart strategy, or do they rely only on strength of numbers? As these factors come into play, the numbers on the map and in the supporting text may not be quite what they seem. Food for thought as we navigate an uncertain world.
Carbon Infestation
A few days ago we heard it again: one of our friends muttered, “there are just too many people in the world. Not sure why anyone would have children these days; there are too many people on this planet anyway.” Their comments reminded me of a line from Star Trek in which an alien intelligence described humanity as a “carbon infestation” that afflicts Planet Earth. Bring in the pest control techs, and get rid of it!
This was not the only time we have heard such sentiments. The odd thing, though, is that none of the folks complaining about too many people, too many children, too many babies being born — none of them ever volunteer to leave as a way of reducing the excess population. In one case the complaining went on so long that the flow of conversation allowed me to semi-jokingly say, “then why don’t you volunteer to leave?” The response was an open-mouthed moment of shock. The complainer, who “only wants the best for the environment,” had never given much thought to the logical end-game of their world view.
Some of the implications of such complaining start to reveal themselves when someone says there are too many people, too many children, too many old people, too many — OK, what comes next? Too many disabled, too many of a different generation, too many who do not think or look like the complainer, too many who are not as enlightened? We see hints of this crop up in our political discourse when the chattering class suggests that some people are not fit to receive medical care, or that they should go to the bottom of the list if they don’t measure up to some committee’s ideas about quality of life. We saw where this road leads if we remember 20th century history, and it leads to a dark place, indeed.
Fortunately, there is a better way to look at life. In God’s view, life is a blessing, children are a blessing, and so are the elderly. Let’s look at some short examples from God’s word.
Psalm 16:31 says, “Gray hair is a crown of glory; it is gained in a righteous life.” Old age comes with aches and pains, and is certainly not for the faint of heart, but God seems to think these people are special. And, if we recall the promise that comes with His commandment about honoring our father and mother, God seems to think that long life is a blessing.
Psalm 127:3-5 says, “Behold, children are a heritage from the LORD, the fruit of the womb a reward. Like arrows in the hand of a warrior are the children of one’s youth. Blessed is the man who fills his quiver with them!” Children may be a challenge and a lot of work, but they also keep us sharp, pull us outside of ourselves, help us grow in maturity, and they are a reward from God.
John 3:16 says, “For God so loved the world, that he gave his only Son, that whoever believes in him should not perish but have eternal life.” The world, in this case, is a world of people. “All” is a dangerous word, but it looks like God loves all of us, even including the people who reject Him; loves us enough to die for us. To God, every life matters. Thankfully, that includes you and me!
Not Really the Clean Plate Club
Some people sample food while they prepare it. Raw egg in the mix? No problem, it has never made me sick (yet). A little green on the cheese? Oh, you mean that’s not natural? Just scrape it off and we’re good to go. How long past the expiration date? Not to worry, I think it’s still good. If not, well…
Other folks were raised as part of the clean plate club. Eat your vegetables or no dessert! Eat your whole meal because children like you are starving in India (or Africa or wherever). Eat the rest of that and show us how grown up you are! Whatever food you have on your plate, eat it all and enjoy!
And yet others don’t believe in putting away leftovers. Don’t worry about that little bit of gravy (or cranberry sauce, or scalloped potatoes, or…); I will be happy to take care of it. Oh, there’s another roll left? Wonderful, that will go nicely! The fridge is full, anyway, and I know you want to wash up these serving dishes…
I was raised as part of the clean plate club; what about you? Regardless, it seems that we have a fourth group of people in America. That would be members of the food supply chain, including cooks and servers, and food consumers who simply toss out food that is suspect, expired, or simply excess. Some of the stores and kitchens in my town make it a point to quietly give their excess food to local shelters, but maybe this practice is not as common as we might guess.
The article linked below paints a dismal picture of the amount of food going to waste in America. Not to be a complainer, but wouldn’t it be nice if we could find more effective ways to share our God-given bounty with the hungry in Ukraine, Ethiopia, Yemen, Uganda, or other areas where food supplies are disrupted or missing?
Four Different Alliances
Most of the countries of Europe are members of one or more major treaty groups. The map linked above portrays these groups with a combination of colors and patterns. Great idea, although I am not sure how you read it if you happen to be colorblind. I wonder, though, if this means much of Europe has to deal with four different kinds of bureaucracy in addition to each country’s national and local systems of governance. Lots of governance, and none of it comes free!
BTW, the small dark wedge between Lithuania and Poland is part of Russia. In fact, Russia has major military installations on that part of the Baltic coast. Which is part of why Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia may be a little nervous about Russian intentions.
Snapshots of Spring
